oscars…

It’s Oscars time, and I’m about to make a small fortune. Unlike lesser men, I am a genius. I also am a world-renowned movie whore. I also don’t mind the odd speculative wager.

As I am also basically a saint, I am sharing my genius with you so that you can get rich also.

The 5 films nominated for Best Motion Picture are (Betfair line):

No Country for Old Men ($1.42) - this movie is one of the biggest joke movies in the history of movies. Fearful that they will appear somehow foolish in the eyes of other critics, every retarded critic in the world has jumped on board and declared this movie to be genius. This is not the case. It’s a boring piece of tripe and the only way it can win Best Picture is if the entire Academy Awards voting process is more rigged than the IOC.

There Will Be Blood ($5.10) - this movie is brilliant. Very, very close to perfection. Awesome on so many levels. Daniel-Day Lewis is a god and other actors are not fit to breathe the same rarefied air as this stone cold freak. He’s so talented its scary, and this movie will win Best Motion Picture. I’ve put 1k on it at $5.80. Get on board before the line moves in too much further.

Atonement ($14.50) - brilliant, spectacular movie based on the award winning Ian McEwan novel of the same name. I have $100 on it when it was paying 30:1. It might not win as all the actors are British, but as an overall package, it deserves to be in serious consideration. Line moving in fast. Not sure there is value at 14:1 but…

Juno ($18.50) - excellent “independent” movie which supposedly cost only 6 mil to make and made over 30 times that back. This film is very cute and fun, but it tries a little bit too hard to be sharp and edgy. The little Hard Candy actress who plays Juno (Ellen Page) is extremely talented and very cute, and she carries this film on her back the whole way. A great film, but it won’t win Best Picture because it doesn’t deserve to.

Michael Clayton ($34.00) - enjoyable film but not an Oscar winning film. This horse is not in the race.

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Leading Actor is not interesting. Daniel-Day Lewis is at $1.10 to win and he’s a lock for his efforts in There Will Be Blood. It’s pretty sick, but there is almost value in getting on him at $1.10 - not enough to concern you though. Let’s move on to….

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Leading Actress:

The value bet here is Ellen Page for Juno at $9.80. She’s probably a 1 in 5 shot.

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Supporting Actor:

There is value in this market because the favourite (Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men - $1.14) doesn’t deserve to win. The line just reflects the retarded hype surrounding No Country. The value bet in this category is Casey Affleck at $12.50 for his portrayal of obsession into hatred in The Assassination of Jesse James. The movie itself is retarded, don’t waste your time with it, but Casey Affleck puts in a huge performance. Definitely value here.

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One more long shot bet for you - Lars and the Real Girl to win Best Original Screenplay. Exceptional sweet movie about a quiet guy who withdraws so far into his own world, he establishes a relationship with a sex doll, believing the doll is a real girl. As the entire town loves him, they decide to play along with his fantasy. The plot sounds retarded but the screenplay is wonderful. Ryan Gosling is excellent and probably should have scraped into Leading Actor contention with his efforts. Up against favourite Juno in this category, this film is a long-shot, but I believe there is value at $12.50.

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Thank me later. If No Country wins Best Picture, I am going to break shit.

Posted in Random |

4 Responses to “oscars…”

4 Comments »

1. Thanks for the hot tips.. Im on it too now.

   I bet on the site sportingbet.co.au

   I notice i can bet on the sex of Nicole Kidman’s baby. Any way to get an edge here?

   Or is it just randomness of nature.

   Maybe inside info could play a part?

   Hmmm anyone know Nicole?

   Comment by Andrew — February 24, 2008 @ 5:50 am

2. I read somewhere once its 51/49 more girls than boys born in the world. So small edge there, not enough to cover the vig though.

   My gut says “boy”.

   Comment by Jonny Vincent — February 24, 2008 @ 4:24 pm

3. you must have a dodgy manilla bootleg remake of no country because that movie was an absolute masterpiece. i was watching the faces of everyone leaving the cinema after the film and it was like they had all just been hit by a mac truck. Maybe Julia Roberts Rom Com’s are more your thing?

   Comment by justin — February 28, 2008 @ 5:36 am

4. It was bootleg but quality was ok. I fell asleep twice in first 45min of it, then steeled myself to watch another half hour before snapping the dvd in frustration at Coen crapness.

   I was really looking forward to it as well, as I loved Fargo.

   Comment by Jonny Vincent — February 28, 2008 @ 6:02 am

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